A compartmental model of Marburg virus disease incorporating corpse mediated transmission and high mortality: Dynamics, reproduction number, and control implications

Abstract

Marburg virus disease (MVD) is a severe hemorrhagic fever with case fatality ratios up to 90%. Corpse-mediated transmission during traditional burials is a recognized driver of secondary cases, yet few mathematical models explicitly quantify this pathway for MVD. To develop and analyze a compartmental model of MVD transmission that incorporates infectious corpses as a separate compartment andSEIR-type to evaluate the effectiveness of safe burial interventions (reducing corpse transmission rate βBor increasing burial rate ν) and case isolation (reducing living transmission rate β). A deterministic SEIR-type model with six compartments (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered, cumulative dead, and infectious unburied corpses) was formulated. The basic reproduction number R0 was derived via the next-generationdisease-free matrix method. Local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium were established. Numerical simulations were performed using baseline parameters (β = 0.20, β_B = 0.15, σ = 1/7, γ = 1/10, μ = 0.07, ν = 0.5 day⁻¹, and CFR = 41%). Baseline R₀ = 2.08, of which 43% comes from corpse transmission. Safe burial alone reduces R0 to 1.45, isolation alone to 1.73, and combined interventions achieve R₀ = 0.86 (< 1). Sensitivity analysis shows β has the strongest influence, but ν and βBare critical when CFR > 50%. Case isolation is the most effective single intervention, but safe, dignified burials are indispensable for MVD control, especially at high CFR. Combined non-pharmaceutical strategies can suppress outbreaks without a vaccine. Outbreak response should prioritize rapid burial teams, surveillance, health worker training, and community engagement, implemented in a phased manner.